Mainstream media outlets (CBS, ESPN, SA-EN) are reporting what Aggies have known with 100% certainty since the VIP Connection went public: Dennis Franchione will not be returning as head coach in 2008.

Anatomy of a Downfall

Since early 2006, the angry aggie mob calling for Fran's head has slowly grown (though subsiding immediately following the victory in Austin) until reaching a very dangerous critical mass in late September this year following the embarrassing loss to Miami on national TV and the close OT win over Fresno State.

Yet, those with an understanding of Bill Byrne's management style and steadfast support of his coaches knew it would take more than a mediocre season to get Fran fired. We knew it would take more than an inability to throw down field. We knew it would take more than consistently settling for field goals. We knew it would take more than a system that consistently squanders talent.

Then it happened. The VIP Connection newsletter went public. The newsletter sealed Fran's fate for three reasons:

1. Swings Public Opinion
   For those still sitting on the fence between Fran being incompetent or merely unfortunate, Fran's nonchalant, dismissive comments concerning the newsletter came across as either very ignorant and stupid or very arrogantly disingenuous. His comments and actions concerning the newsletter pushed a lot of people off the fence onto the anti-Fran side.
2. NCAA Violations
   While the infractions were minor in the grand scheme of NCAA violations, the fact that they occurred furthered the perception of Fran as being either very stupid or very arrogant. When he endangered the program, he crossed a line. The infractions will factor heavily into Fran's buyout, with A&M looking to wittle it down to possibly 25% of the 8.5 million promised in the contract.
3. Fran Attempted to undermine/circumvent Byrne
   This is, in my opinion, the focal point of Fran's termination. Fran and Mike McKenzie weren't writing the newsletter because they needed the extra income. If supplemental income was the objective, more boosters would've been solicited. Yet, less than 20 were receiving the emails. These boosters were the powerful elite within the TMF, most were Eppright Donors and served on the TMF's advisory council, some were even on the board.

   The purpose of the newsletter was to spin information in Fran's favor. By giving them exclusive access to the game planning and Fran's thought process, they could identify with him and understand him. Having a powerful bloc of friends within the TMF gave Fran both an added layer of protection from Byrne, and an alternate route around and over him, if ever needed. One can only imagine the kind of shock and rage Byrne felt when he was told of the newsletter and moments later perceived its intended purpose.

Though the outcome is determined, questions still remain:

• How much lower will his $8.5 million buyout be?
  The rumor mill puts the negotiations at anywhere between 1.8 - 3.3 million.
• When will he step down?
  With all the news on Monday and the usual Tuesday media luncheon, some are saying that a buyout has already been reached and Fran will announce his resignation tomorrow. Most think Fran will wait until after the Missouri game, or even the Texas game.

  Ideally, he steps down tomorrow. It would give the interim coach 3 weeks to prepare for Texas. However, I find that scenario very unlikely. I see the bargaining process taking longer than the supposed 36hrs that have elapsed since official discussion allegedly began. Fran however incompetent he has become, still has pride and a bond with this team, I see him wanting to finish the regular season.

• Who will be the interim coach
  Assuming he steps down before the Texas game, or assuming the Aggies get to a bowl game, the Aggies will need someone to take the official reins. No, RC Slocum won't be returning a la Tom Osborne at Nebraska. Expect a well liked coach to take over, someone the players all love and respect. The most important element during a coaching transition is team unity, and that will be the interim coach's #1 objective. My pick for interim coach is Asst. HC/RB coach Kenith Pope. The reason I didn't pick Darnell or Eggen is because the offensive unit seems to be the one with the most fractures and tension, and raising a defensive coach to that level may not be able to address those issues as effectively. Pope is well liked and respected by the players and is already the 2nd highest ranking coach by title.
• and finally, Who will be the next Head Coach of the Aggie Football team?
  It's much too early to begin speculating, rumors will abound for the next month or so. All I know is that Bill Byrne has done a remarkable job hiring championship caliber coaches for all the other sports, he just hasn't had the opportunity to do it for football yet. I trust in Bill Byrne's judgement and leave it in his hands.